The AI Distribution Era: Why Google Is Pulling Ahead

Things are about to change in the world of AI.

There's a reason why Warren Buffett - renowned for investing in "boring things" - took a $4.3 Billion stake in Google while in the middle of a frothy AI bubble. On the surface this looks nothing at all like an investment he would be interested in.

So what's actually going on? Here it is: We're moving from the AI Model Arms Race to the Distribution Era.

Google released Gemini 3 yesterday, and early signals - including our own testing - suggest it is now the leading frontier model. But all the leading models are highly effective - it doesn't matter nearly as much which one scores 1 point higher on the benchmarks. What matters much more now is this:

Gemini is going to be EVERYWHERE.

Literally the default AI experience for billions of people:

- Every Android phone (2.5 billion active devices)

- Every iPhone through Apple's licensing deal to use Gemini for Siri

- Every Chrome browser

- Every Google Search query - except now it will generate the content, not just search for it

OpenAI can't do this. Anthropic can't do this. Microsoft can't do this. Apple has become dependent on it.

Only Google has this distribution capability.

OpenAI has great models but has to fight for every user - as evidenced by Sam Altman's overblown promises about GPT-5 before it was released. Anthropic is winning enterprises one contract at a time. Microsoft is awkwardly bolting AI onto existing products.

Google? They already own the surfaces where billions of people live every day. Gemini won't need marketing. It'll just... be there. The default. The everyday infrastructure.

And if the AI bubble bursts? Google is sitting on an estimated $80B+ in 2025 free cash flow. OpenAI and Anthropic are burning capital with no near-term path to profitability. Google has the balance sheet to keep building while others are scrambling for runway.

The AI arms race was about building the best model. The AI reset is about owning the surfaces where AI actually gets used. Nobody owns more surfaces than Google - even Apple, their biggest competitor, is now licensing their AI.

Soon, AI won't be something you "use" - it'll just be part of everything you do. And it's looking like Google will be powering most of it, whether you chose it or not.

Google doesn’t need to win the model race—its global distribution gives it the most powerful AI footprint.